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Winners and Losers in a COVID Economy

By Dennis Boone


You only had to look in the paper-products aisle of your local grocer  this month to know instinctively that those stores were going to see big sales, and for more than just toilet paper.
 
As the business world reorients to consumers caught up in panic buying, which other sectors are experiencing big gains? And which are taking the hardest hits?
 
Data scientists at the analytics site Wombly are trying to discern those figures, based on year-over-year transactions at 400,000 businesses across the United States. Among those are 48,000 restaurants, 10,000 grocery stores, 4,600 bars, 64,000 retail shops, and 6,400 lodging businesses. You can view that ongoing analysis here.
 
Here’s what they’ve found so far: 

Losers

Restaurants
  • Weekly revenue is down 48 percent from last year. Daily revenue levels dropped to as low as 65 percent on Saturday, and that number continues to drop rapidly. In Kansas, the year-over-year figure was down 42.4 percent; Missouri was down 51.1 percent. That was the only sector with bi-state figures available so far.
Lodging
  • Weekly revenue is down 75 percent, while daily revenue levels dropped to as low as 79 percent on Saturday.

    Transportation
    • With federal and state governments encouraging citizens to remain home, weekly revenue for the transportation sector is down 87 percent.
 

Arts and entertainment

  • Weekly revenue is down 78 percent; daily revenue levels dropped to as low as 100 percent–yes, 100 percent–on Tuesday.
Bars
  • Revenue Saturday was down 63 percent from last year’s date, and (like restaurants) with many bars closed or only open for take out, that number should continue to drop rapidly. Weekly revenue is down 39 percent.

Winners

Firearm and Sporting Goods Stores
  • The panic to buy guns and ammo paid off for firearm and sporting goods stores, who saw their highest daily revenues for 2020 last Wednesday: Up 204 percent year-over-year for that date. Weekly revenue was up 161 percent.
Grocery stores
  • Driven by consumer panic, grocery stores saw their highest daily revenues for 2020 on Monday, with consumer spending up 100 percent over last year for that date. Weekly revenue is up 64 percent.
Retail
  • As of Saturday, local retail still hadn’t yet felt the full force of social-distancing measures. Revenue for the day was down 10 percent; but up 7.5 percent over the same week last year.