UMB Revises Financial Forecast for 2020

A year that started on with a booming U.S. economy is now certain to include a recession.

That’s the take-away from UMB Bank’s chief investment officer, KC Mathews, who has issued a 2020 economic forecast updated to reflect the impact of the COVID-19 virus pandemic and, to a lesser extent, the global crash in oil prices.  

The COVID aspects, though addressed with aggressive federal stimulus and public-health actions to shutter non-essential businesses, will be with us until the nation sees a decline in the number of new cases of the illness or a vaccine is developed, he said.

 “A recession is now all but certain. We expect a material contraction in the second quarter GDP, down 15.5 percent, an improvement in the third quarter, still negative 0.5 percent, and a recovery in the fourth quarter, a positive 3.2%. That will bring 2020 real GDP to -1.8 percent.” You can read more about it here