Tracking Site Shows Viral Spread Slowing in Kansas

A Web site created by the founders of Instagram to track the COVID-19 virus rate of transmission by state shows that Kansas is on the threshold of stopping the spread.

Today’s update on the site, rt.live, put at 1.0 the metric that epidemiologists call an R-naught value. That level is significant because anything above 1 shows that an illness is spreading—it means each infected individual is capable of infecting more than one other person.

If the downward trend in Kansas continues, it will provide much-needed support for measures to lift state and local restrictions on economic activity and social gatherings.

Missouri fell below a collective 1.0 R-naught several weeks ago, and has been holding steady at 0.85 for more than a week. Again, at that level, the transmission rates are expected to be slowing sufficiently to see the growth in new COVID-19 cases phasing out.

Kansas is one of only four states that have yet to fall below the 1.0 threshold; it’s tied with Iowa at that level, while Nebraska and Minnesota continue to show rates of growth in the spread at 1.06 and 1.05.

Public-health officials will be carefully tracking numbers like those in the coming days. Research into the spread of the illness suggests that roughly five days pass before someone infected begins to show symptoms, with additional time needed to see a doctor, get tested and receive the results.

With last weeks’ first steps to reopen economies in Missouri and Kansas, that means an increase in cases related to those moves could begin to show up later this week, if not sooner.