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Rural Mainstreet Index shows majority of bankers expect decline in 2020 holiday sales

By Madison Parry

Results from a survey of regional bank CEOS show that compared to 2019, 54.8 percent of bankers expect a 3.1 percent drop in 2020 retail holiday sales, while only 16.1 percent anticipate an increase from last year. However, a rise in online sales this year could slightly bump up this season’s sale numbers from 2019.

Compared to 2019, bankers expect 2020 retail sales to be down by 3.1 percent, according a Rural Mainstreet Index survey sent out to bank CEOs.

The survey concluded that around 54.8 percent of bankers anticipate a reduction from 2019, while 16.1 percent project an upturn from last year’s holiday sales.

“However, I expect online sales to expand by 30%,” Institute for Economic Inquiry Director, Ernie Goss, said in a tweet. “Thus, on average, holiday sales are likely to be up 2% to 3%. Not great, but not that bad.”

Goss is also a professor at the Creighton University Heider College of Business and helped conduct the monthly survey of bankers for the Rural Mainstreet Index.

While in-store sales are most likely to be down in the region, Goss said the survey and others indicate consumers are pessimistic, which dampens purchasing.

“Retailers this year have been particularly aggressive in starting early because they understand the stress that consumers are under this year,” Goss said.

Goss also said that consumers in general have more money to spend this year compared to last, because of COVID-19.

“The savings rate went from 2-3% for the consumer to about 28%, so there is some money out there,” Goss said, “particularly when consumers have cut back in other areas.”