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Rural Bankers Expect Nearly 40% of Farmers to Lose Money in 2024

Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Economy Index shows its lowest level since 2020. Photo credit: fish hawk (Creative Commons license via Flickr)

Posted September 19, 2024

The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index has plummeted to its lowest level since the pandemic, and farmers are expected to feel more pressure throughout the year.

The region’s overall reading for September sank to 37.5 from 40.9 in August, the lowest reading since spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, 50.0 represents growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and elevated input costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 13th straight month,” Ernie Goss, Ph.D. at Creighton University said.

Farmland prices have sunk for the fourth time in the past five months as the region’s farmland index fell to 43.8 from August’s 45.5. Around one-fourth of bankers anticipate a 10% to 20% downturn in farmland prices over the next year, Goss said.

Additionally, the September farm equipment sales index increased to 19.0 from 16.7. That’s a 14-month streak the index has fallen below growth neutral.

Rural bankers, many of which remain pessimistic concerning an increase in economic growth in their areas, expect approximately 39.1% of farmers will experience negative 2024 farm income.

September Rural Mainstreet Reports by state:

Kansas
The Kansas RMI for September dipped to 34.1 from 34.2 in August. The state’s farmland price index fell to 42.3 from 43.0 in August. The new hiring index for Kansas sank to 39.6 from 42.3 in August. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $49.0 million or 6.7% from the same period in 2023.

Missouri
The state’s September RMI sank to 53.5 from August’s 55.6. The farmland price index for September rose to 63.8 from 53.9 last month. The state’s new hiring gauge for September expanded to 63.8 from August’s 55.9. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down by $164.6 million or 23.3% from the same period in 2023.