Regions Manufacturing Index Shows Rise in Conditions, Supply Managers Expect Recession

Posted on January 2, 2024

Updated 2:00 p.m., March 1, 2024

Creighton University released its Mid-America Business Conditions Index which shows a positive rise in the region’s business conditions but many supply managers still see a recession looming in 2024.

The Business Conditions Index, which uses the same methodology as the National Institute for Supply Management, ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, climbed to 50.3 from 42.2 in November.

“Even with the positive bounce in December’s reading, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 economy with 46 percent expecting a 2024 recession in the first half of the year. Less than one-fifth, or 19 percent, anticipate an economic expansion in the first half of 2024,” Ernie Goss, Ph.D. at Creighton University said.

The Kansas Business Conditions Index for December climbed to 54.1 from November’s 44.7. In the past 12 months, the state lost 600 jobs in the manufacturing sector, or -0.9 percent The average hourly wage rate expanded by 4.4 percent, or above the 3.1 percent increase in consumer prices.

Missouri’s December Business Conditions Index increased to 46.1 from 37.5 in November. In the past 12 months, Missouri increased its manufacturing sector employment by 3,400, or 1.2 percent. The average hourly wage rate expanded by 8.6 percent for the period, well above the 3.1 percent increase in consumer prices.

Overall, following two straight months of below-growth-neutral employment readings, the hiring gauge expanded to 50.0 from 42.5 in November.