Region’s Economy Index Slows in September, Bankers Expect Conditions to Worsen

Posted September 21, 2023

Creighton University released its Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) report for September showing for the first time since March of this year, the overall index sank below growth neutral.

The region’s overall reading for September fell to 49.5 from August’s 50.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“This is the weakest recorded reading since March of this year. Bankers indicated that the biggest challenge to community bank profitability over the next 12 months will be a downturn in farm income,” Ernie Goss, Ph.D. at Creighton University said.

The report also surveyed bankers from the 10-state region. When asked if the 2023 banking crisis that spiked in March of this year was over, almost half, or 46.4 percent of them, expect another banking crisis this year, according to the report.

“Approximately half of bankers expect economic conditions to worsen in the next six months,” Goss said.

The Kansas RMI for September fell to 48.7 from August’s 51.1.

Kansas’ farmland-price index climbed to 63.6 from 59.2 in August. The new-hiring index for Kansas sank to 48.5 from August’s 59.0. According to data from the International Trade Association, Kansas’ agriculture exports, including processed food, fell from $3.42 billion in the first seven months of 2022 to $2.53 billion for the same period in 2023, a drop of 26.1 percent.

Missouri’s September RMI improved to 40.2 from 37.5 in August.

The Missouri farmland-price index expanded to 61.2 from 55.4 in August. The state’s new hiring gauge slipped to 45.5 from 46.9 in August. According to data from the International Trade Association, Missouri’s agriculture exports, including processed food, were expanded from $1.57 billion in the first seven months of 2022 to $1.61 billion for the same period in 2023, representing 2.4 percent growth.

View the September report, here.