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Region Manufacturing Index Shows Job Losses Continue Amidst Inflation

Creighton University's Mid-American Manufacturing Index for April shows the region’s manufacturing sector lost jobs for a fourth straight month. Photo credit: Shutterstock (Jenson)

Posted May 13, 2024

Creighton University released its Mid-America Business Conditions Index for April showing the highest recorded level since September 2023, however, the manufacturing sector continues to lose jobs month over month.

The Business Conditions Index, which uses the same methodology as the National Institute for Supply Management and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, increased to 52.5, the highest since September 2023, from March’s 49.6, according to Creighton University’s March 2024 survey.

“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral for the last five months. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook with approximately 45% expecting a recession in the second half of 2024,” Ernie Goss, Ph.D. at Creighton University said.

In April, the employment index fell to 40.0 from March’s 40.9. Over the past 12 months, discharges and layoffs in the region soared by 24.5%, or 35,000 job involuntary separations, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Despite labor shortages and elevated inflationary pressures, supply managers reported a 12-month wage gain of only 3.5%, or less than inflation over the same period of time,” Goss said.

State reports from Creighton University’s April 2024 survey:

Kansas

The Kansas Business Conditions Index for April expanded to 51.5 from March’s 45.6. Components of the leading economic indicator from the monthly survey of supply managers for April were: new orders at 58.7; production or sales at 51.6; delivery lead time at 56.6; employment at 38.8; and inventories at 51.9. According to the latest month’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, involuntary job losses fell by 1,000, or 6.7%, over the past 12 months in Kansas.

Missouri

The state’s April Business Conditions Index expanded to 55.5 from 53.8 in March. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for April were: new orders at 59.1; production or sales at 52.0; delivery lead time at 58.2; inventories at 59.7; and employment at 48.4. According to the latest month’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, involuntary job losses fell by 4,000, or 13.8%, over the past 12 months in Missouri.