Region’s Manufacturing Conditions and Employment Falls in September

Posted October 2, 2024

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index for September shows rising concern among supply managers in part due to a looming strike on the East Coast.

The Business Conditions Index, which methodology ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, declined to 48.1 from 48.7 in August.

“The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral since December of 2023,” Ernie Goss, Ph.D. at Creighton University said. “Additionally, supply managers remained concerned about inflationary pressures, with an average 6.2% growth in input prices expected over the next year.”

The region’s manufacturing employment also took a dip as the September employment index sank to 44.3 from 45.2 in August. Manufacturing employment has fallen by 4,900 jobs, 0.3%, in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The September Business Confidence Index dropped to 26.2 from 26.7 in August. Supply managers in the region, approximately 62% percent of them, now expect a recession or worse business conditions in the next six months.

“Due to the potential for an East Coast Longshoremen’s strike in the first week of October, supply managers added to their level of inventories in September,” said Goss.

Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association stopped working on Tuesday, causing a bottleneck for operation on East and Gulf Coast ports. Dockworkers and longshoremen are calling for better pay and to establish job security against automation.

State Reports:

Kansas: The Kansas Business Conditions Index for September rose to 48.8 from 46.5 in August. Components of the leading economic indicators from the monthly survey of supply managers for September were: new orders at 42.6; production or sales at 41.6; delivery lead time at 61.2; employment at 47.4; and inventories at 51.0. According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusted manufacturing data, Kansas lost 600 manufacturing jobs, or -0.5%, thus far in 2024.

Missouri: The state’s September Business Conditions Index increased to 45.7 from 45.5 in August. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for September were: new orders at 41.4; production or sales at 37.8; delivery lead time at 54.5; inventories at 50.4; and employment at 44.6. According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusted manufacturing data, Missouri gained 2,700 manufacturing jobs, or +1.4%, thus far in 2024.