Missouri faces new COVID-19 containment threat

A month after dropping into the bottom tier of states with its COVID-19 transmission rate, Missouri is on the threshold of crossing back into expansion mode for the virus.

The web site rt.live today reported that the state’s rate of transmission, or R_t, stood at .99, just shy of the 1.0 reading that indicates increasing prevalence of the virus. That’s up 13 basis points from the first week of May, when efforts to control the spread had driven the figure to .86 as the statewide sheltering order was expiring.

As a consequence, the rate of new cases recorded daily has reached a post-sheltering high of nearly 207, just shy of the 213 peak the site records since May 1.

Kansas, by comparison, is clinging consistently to an R_t  of .90, indicating that the presence of the virus is declining. New cases have fallen to 114 a day, well below the April peak of 276. The patient count at the University of Kansas Hospital also remained generally stable, with one new admission ticking the number up to 18 as of this morning.

The broader national backdrop continues to offer hope that the lethality of the pandemic is ebbing in the U.S. even as the numbers of cases increase. As of Tuesday, the nation had recorded fewer than 1,000 daily deaths for 11 of the previous 12 days, a mark not seen since March 31. The 7-day rolling average compiled by worldometers.com currently stands at 712 nationwide, the lowest figure since 600 on March 31.

Overall, 119,453 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S.—905 in Missouri and 248 in Kansas. Each state is well below the national average of 361 deaths per million of population: Missouri at 147, and Kansas at 85.