Has the Tide Turned?

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 2025

It’s been a top-of-mind question for educators, workforce development executives, and hiring managers for years: When will the erosion in college enrollment trends stop?

Well, a one-year slice of that trendline is too thin to draw long-term conclusions, but enrollment figures at colleges and universities in Missouri and Kansas suggest that—at least for now—the worst is over.

Missouri, which had seen a 9.33 percent drop in combined public/private four-year and community college enrollments since just before the 2020 pandemic, actually recorded an increase last fall, up 0.85 percent for all institutions.

Kansas post-secondary had been hit even harder, down nearly 11 percent from 2019-2023, but posted a 1.60 percent increase last fall.

Those figures put the bistate region well ahead of the country. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, first-time enrollment among 18-year-olds dropped by 5 percent last fall. Inside Higher Ed, which follows trends in that sector, said that in 46 states, the average drop was almost 7 percent.

For companies looking to hire, the figures hold out hope for deeper talent pools in the near term. Apart from the percentages, the raw numbers of students tell a starker story. They show that across the region, 41,000 fewer students were enrolled in college classes in 2024, implying the loss of tens of thousands of degree-holding job candidates. 

Things were particularly rosy in Columbia, where the University of Missouri reported a 16 percent increase in freshmen enrollment. That pushed overall enrollment to 31,543, up 5.1 percent since 2019.

The University of Kansas in Lawrence surpassed two enrollment milestones, snagging the largest freshman class and highest overall enrollment in its history.  The 5,323 freshmen marked a 1.2 percent increase from the previous year’s record freshmen enrollment. Overall enrollment was up 4. 8 percent to 30,770; the previous record was 30,102 in 2008.

Of potentially more immediate concern for employers, community college enrollment in Kansas broke a line that had reduced enrollments by more than 15 percent since 2019, eking out a 0.89 percent increase. Missouri community colleges fared even better, up 4.28 percent for the year, cutting into what is now an overall decline of 5.91 percent since 2019.

The biggest year-over-year winners: Avila University, a private Catholic college in Kansas City, skyrocketed, up 60.1 percent. It has more than doubled enrollment over the previous three years, up 101.5 percent. The flip side of that was Fontbonne University in Clayton, which fell by almost the same percentage as Avila grew: down 61.4 percent year over year, and nearly 72 percent since the pre-pandemic year.