The apparent disconnect between plummeting prices for farmers and soaring grocery demand from consumers is likely to be with us for a while as the nation continues to address the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s the assessment of Scott Brown, an associate extension professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. The university, in a news release today, sounded him out on how the agricultural economy is doing amidst the COVID-19 outbreak. In short, not well.

“U.S. farmers are finding many challenges due to the COVID-19 outbreak,” he said. “There is considerable uncertainty around corn and soybean crops, which are being planted in increased numbers after last year’s flooding and wet weather disrupted the crops.”

But corn-based ethanol will continues to suffer with crude oil plunging to as low as $25 a barrel during the early phases of the pandemic and before Russia and Saudi Arabia finally reached an agreement to stabilize production. In the interim, Brown said, many ethanol plants have been idled until profitability returns for that production.

As for livestock, figures prices have dropped markedly for live cattle (25 percent lower), hogs (35 percent lower) and milk (20 percent lower)  over the past two months. “This has strained livestock producers to figure out how to find markets for their products. In some cases, milk producers have been forced to dump milk because there is simply no room for it at processing plants,” Brown said.

Perhaps the biggest driver of change for producers has been the loss of the food-service industry with restaurants, bars and hotels shutting down. That’s big, because away-from-home food purchases account for more than half, 54 percent, of all sales in a $1.7 trillion slice of the economy.

Consumers have picked up some of that demand, but as Brown notes, “it is a monumental task to change an infrastructure designed to provide a significant percentage of products for the food service industry to now increase product flow to groceries.”

COVID-19 challenges have also directly affected agricultural processing facilities that have had to shutter for periods of time as their workers test positive for the virus, he said. And processing speeds have also slowed as companies practice social distancing measures in these facilities.

Longer-term, he said, some farmers, processors, distributors and others will be forced to exit the industry as a result of the severe economic situation they face today. But he’s hopeful that the trade agreement signed with China before COVID-19 hit will give farmers here greater demand for their products.