Coping With COVID: U.S. Down-Trend Levels Out

Since peaking at 308,000 new cases on January, and driving that week’s rolling 7-day average for new COVID-19 cases to more than 256,000 a day, the nation has seen a sharp reduction in new infections. By early March, the rolling average had fallen below 56,000 new daily cases, a  decline of nearly 80 percent that was attributed in large part to the numbers of Americans receiving one of the new vaccines, and to progress made toward herd immunity as the infection count surpassed 30 million.

But the latest figures compiled from state health departments nationwide suggest that officials were right to be concerned about the impact of increased travel during spring break: As of Thursday, the rolling average of new cases had ticked up to nearly 59,000, and that level has largely been unchanged for two weeks. 

That is the national picture. Regionally, things are looking considerably rosier. Kansas, in fact, just saw its rolling 7-day average of new cases fall below double digits, to 9, as of Thursday. That’s a far cry from more than 2,800 a day in mid-November. Some of that may be a statistical hiccup caused by a change in reporting frequency to three times a week, rather than daily, but the overall trend has been undeniable. And the declining rate of new cases has dropped the state to No. 34 nationwide in overall case counts, after sitting in 31st place for months.

Missouri, which saw its 7-day average fall to 577 last week, has inched back up to 652 cases, but that’s still down 87 percent from the Nov. 18 peak of 5,054 cases.

Area hospitals last week saw their lowest numbers of patients admitted for COVID-19 since last summer, but there, too, the numbers have inched back up, although well below the near crisis-level crush of admissions they experience in late 2020 and early 2021. To keep the down-trends going, physicians continue to urge people to wear masks and pay attention to social distancing in public, maintain a rigorous hand-washing regimen, and avoid touching your face, especially your nose and around your eyes.