Coping with Covid: Statistical update

By Dennis Boone

Despite repeated grim reports surrounding the current status of COVID-19 in the U.S., Tuesday data shows the nation has gone 13 consecutive days with fewer than 1,000 new daily reported deaths for the first time since early July, the decline bringing the nation’s rolling seven-day average death count down.

As the human toll attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. has surpassed 200,000, the “grim milestone” references in daily news reports have overlooked one positive indicator: As of Tuesday, the nation had gone 13 consecutive days with fewer than 1,000 new daily reported deaths, a string not seen since the first wave of the virus bottomed out three months ago, on July 5.

Sept. 23, with 1,116 deaths, was the most recent date to surpass that toll; in fact, it was the lone outlier in a stretch going back to Sept. 17. The decline has pushed the nation’s rolling seven-day average death count down to 719, a figure not seen since July 10.

Medical professionals and public-health authorities attribute the decline in the lethality of the virus to multiple factors: A slower spread of the virus through increased use of facial coverings by the public, continuing restrictions on large gatherings, personal hygiene practices, social distancing, heightened awareness of the risk posed to the most vulnerable groups (those older than 80 and those with existing conditions, including obesity, diabetes and lung disorders) and a better understanding of how to treat the most severe cases.

Despite that glimmer of good news, the virus itself stubbornly persists in its march across the land. Missouri, especially, has seen record numbers of cases in the past week. On Saturday, it surpassed 3,000 reported cases for the first time, at 3,023, and again on Tuesday, a 3,009. The overall case count has propelled the Show-Me State to No. 18 nationally, ahead of Massachusetts and just behind Michigan.

Interestingly, though, Missourians are surviving at significantly higher rates than either of those states. Massachusetts, with a population nearly identical to Missouri’s, has seen slightly fewer cases (about 136,000 to roughly 141,500 here), but has a death rate more than four times higher: 9,538 victims to Missouri’s 2,349. Michigan, with nearly 144,000 cases, has recorded more than three times the number of fatalities, with 7,161.

Kansas, which reported no new fatalities on Tuesday, has lost 706 residents to COVID-19, and at 242 deaths per 1 million in population, ranks No. 41 among the states for that metric.