Coping with COVID: Missouri and Kansas among states showing growth in viral spread

Data analysts tracking the spread of COVID-19 have made adjustments to their model, and now offer a sobering picture for the nation: As of today, in only one state—Mississippi—is the virus spreading slowly enough to consider cases decline.

Using a metric known as Rt, for rate of transmission, the web site rt.live now projects that 49 states and the District of Columbia have rates that show growth in the viral spread. Leading the list for fastest growth is Vermont, with an Rt of 1.38. Anything above 1.0 is considered an indicator that the rate of transmission is increasing in the population; below that, the virus appears to be in decline.

Missouri was tied for 27th with Florida, Maryland and the District of Columbia, all with a rate of 1.10. Kansas was right behind, at 1.09.

Adjustments to the figures by rt.live suggest that the 49-state spread is unchanged from two weeks ago. That’s starkly different from July, when only 14 states saw growth of the virus, the new projections show.

The numbers, some public-health officials say, are a reflection of how successful the nation has been in deferring cases with a mix of economic shutdown orders, mask mandates and frequent messages about the need for more vigilant personal behavior. But they also demonstrate that the virus is likely to be with us until, as with most outbreaks, it has run its natural course—those efforts can delay case counts, but not eliminate the threat.

The nation saw a daily record 81,424 cases last Thursday, and has topped 80,000 twice since then, pushing the seven-day rolling average to 75,323, the highest level since the outbreak reached the U.S. in February.

But the medical community’s response to positive cases, and the lessons learned from the lethal spike in the spring, have driven the fatality numbers down sharply. The current seven-day average of new deaths, according to worldometers.com, stands at 817, down 63.8 percent from the peak of 2,256 on April 21. As a result, the lethality of the virus has fallen from 7.67 percent of known infections to 1.08, based on the seven-day averages.

Missouri, which recorded its 3,000th COVID-19-related death this week, has an overall case fatality rate of 1.63 percent, a figure skewed higher by a significantly larger case count in the St. Louis region. Kansas, which went over the 1,000-death mark this week, has a case fatality rate of 1.21 percent. Slightly more than 3 percent of Missourians have been diagnosed with the virus; the figure is just below 3 percent for Kansans.

Public health and medical professionals say much of that decline in lethality can be attributed to the spread among people under 40, who in most cases exhibit fewer symptoms, less serious symptoms, and in many instances, none at all. The biggest risk remains to senior citizens; those 65 and older account for nearly 79 percent of the deaths, the bulk of which have occurred in congregate care settings such as nursing homes.