Business Climate and Economic Conditions

As 2022 passes the halfway mark, angry clouds gather over America’s econ-omy. Most everywhere one looks are metrics that say the storm is coming. The Dow Jones Industrial Average? Down 10 percent since Jan. 1. Interest rates? Jacked three-quarters of a point by the Fed in its most recent meeting, with more increases to come. Gasoline prices? Who really wants to talk about a 100 percent-plus surge since early 2021? The federal deficit? 

There is plenty more where that came from if you’re the type to punish yourself with pessimism. But one of the great things about America and our system of government is that we’re not a monolith; we’re a republic. Different states elect different types of politicians with different priorities. 

That’s how you get 50 separate economies that make up one big economy. And within that group, one that stands out. It’s Missouri, where we have a $295.7 billion slice of the national GDP pie—about 1.5 percent of the nation’s $20.9 trillion total. The math purist might argue that Missouri’s share is below the 2 percent one might expect, based on the law of averages for 50 states. The law in this case, though, is misapplied.

To appropriate some boxing terminology, it is not the size of the fist that counts; what matters is the force of the punch. That is where the Show-Me State shines.

Want to talk fiscal health? Missouri is one of just 13 states with the highest bond rates assigned by S&P Global (AAA), Moody’s (AAA), and Fitch (AAA). Want to talk unemployment rates? At just 3.1 percent in May 2022, we were closer to full employment than 30 other states. Crosstab those results, and you find that only five of those 12 other states with spotless bond rankings had better jobless numbers than Missouri.

The point is, Missouri i s in better shape than others to weather a downturn, and if historical data can be a guide, we’ll be among the last of the 10 Fed districts to fall into recession territory and among the first to pull out. 

Why do you suppose that is? A lot of it can be explained by the same factors that inspire nearly 6.2 million people to call this state home: plenty of career pathways through a highly diverse business ecosystem; excellent earnings potential, stellar quality of life, off-the-charts affordability, outstanding colleges and school systems, and a nearly limitless appeal for those who want to get outdoors.