A Tale of Two Systems

PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2025

Missouri and Kansas are witnessing a quiet revolution within their halls of higher learning. Some parts of that suggest strength and strong work-force development ahead. Some aspects are harbingers of tough choices ahead for policy-makers.

Enrollment figures dating to just ahead of the 2020 pandemic tell a story not just of uneven recovery but one of stark divergence, where institutional fortunes have split dramatically based on mission, location, and strategic agility. While Kansas’ public system as a whole has staged a remarkable comeback, nearly reaching its pre-pandemic enrollment, the underlying data reveals a landscape of winners and losers, a narrative mirrored in Missouri’s community college sector. The clear trend emerging is a decisive shift toward practical, career-oriented education, leaving traditional models scrambling to adapt.

Kansas: A Radical Divergence on All Fronts

Kansas provides the most compelling case study of systemic transformation. After a precipitous drop to 165,198 students in 2022, the state’s public system is projected to rebound to 179,124 for the fall semester 2025—a mere 0.4 percent below its 2019 level. This recovery, however, is not a rising tide lifting all boats. It is a reallocation of students that is reshaping the educational ecosystem:

Four-Year Universities. Two realities are emerging among these Sunflower State universities. Overall, enrollment is remarkably stable, dipping just 0.3 percent from 2019 to 2025. But this stability masks a seismic internal shift.

On one side are the ascendant institutions: Wichita State University and the University of Kansas. Wichita State is the state’s standout performer, with 14.9 percent growth—2,400 students—since 2019. Fueling that: a 27.3 percent explosion over the past decade. Its strategy of prioritizing access, affordability, and deep integration with the urban economy has paid enormous dividends. Similarly, KU has surged past its pre-pandemic slump, adding nearly 2,600 students, a 10.5 percent increase to a record-high enrollment, bolstered by its research prestige and the third-largest freshman class in its history.

On the other side, grim trends have taken hold, with implications not just for those institutions, but for three communities wherein each is a major economic anchor. These regional comprehensive universities are facing an existential crisis. Fort Hays State University has been gutted, losing 3,059 students—a devastating 19.2 percent of its enrollment since 2019. Emporia State University follows closely, down 18.0 percent (-1,057 students), and Pittsburg State University has declined by 12.7 percent. This decline is not a temporary blip but the culmination of a “demographic cliff,” a strong labor mar-ket luring away traditional students, and increased competition.

The response from the Kansas Board of Regents, under Chair Blake Flanders, has been direct and unflinching. Flanders has consistently framed this as a strategic imperative, stating institutions cannot “do what we’ve always done and think that we’re going to get a different outcome.” 

This philosophy has translated into concrete action. Emporia State’s controversial “Framework for the Future” led to the elimination of dozens of faculty and programs. Pittsburg State cut $4.1 million from its budget, and Fort Hays State implemented a work-force management plan. To control costs. The Regents have officially adjusted state funding recommendations, decreasing allocations for Emporia and Pittsburg while offering a slight increase to Fort Hays based on other performance metrics. This is a clear signal: adapt or face financial consequences.

Community Colleges. Kansas community colleges were the sector hardest hit by the pandemic, plummeting from  total enrollment of 67,701 in 2019 to a low of 58,148 in 2020. Their recovery has been strong, projected to reach 64,851 in 2025, but remains 4.2 percent below pre-pandemic levels, highlighting their vulnerability to economic cycles.

Here, too, divergence is the rule. Johnson County Community College, the sector’s giant, is driving the recovery. After a catastrophic drop in 2020, is back near its 2019 head-count, showcasing a powerful 34.2 percent rebound from its low. Barton Community College and Coffeyville Community College also show robust growth, with strong five-year trends.

Conversely, the declines are catastrophic for some. Fort Scott Community College is experiencing a collapse of historic proportions, projected to lose 37.6 percent of its students since 2019. Allen Community College and Butler Community College are also projected to remain significantly below their 2019 levels. The survival of these smaller, rural colleges is increasingly uncertain as they struggle to attract students in a competitive and demographically challenged environment.

Technical Colleges. If there is one unequivocal success story in Kansas higher education, it is the technical-college sector. This segment is not just growing; it is booming. From 9,751 students in 2019, it has exploded to 12,239 in 2025—a healthy 25.5 percent increase. Every single technical college in the data-set has higher enrollment in 2025 than in 2019.

The engine of this growth is Wichita State University Campus of Applied Sciences and Technology (WSU Tech), up 36.0 percent since 2019 and an astonishing 101.5 percent over 10 years. Flint Hills Technical College and Salina Area Technical College have nearly doubled their enrollment over the past decade. This explosive growth underscores a fundamental shift in student priorities: a direct, efficient, and high-value pathway to in-demand, well-paying careers in the skilled trades and applied sciences.

Missouri: Contrasts Within Community Colleges 

While comprehensive updated data for Missouri’s four-year and technical sectors is not yet available for the 2025 fall semester, the detailed community college data reveals a narrative with both parallels and contrasts to Kansas.

Missouri’s community college sector as a whole has not recovered as robustly as Kansas’. The sector subtotal is down 5.9  percent from 2019 to 2024, compared to Kansas’s 4.2 percent deficit. However, the 4.3 percent one-year growth from 2023 to 2024 suggests a positive momentum shift.

The divergence within Missouri, however, is equally dramatic. Several institutions are not just recovering but thriving. Moberly Area Community College and North Central Missouri College are standout performers, boasting 11.4 percent and 11.7 percent growth respectively since 2019. State Fair Community College has done even better, surging with a 13.0 percent one-year increase. These institutions demonstrate that strategic positioning and responsive programming can lead to growth even in a challenging climate.

Conversely, other colleges face steep, persistent declines. Metropolitan Community College in Kansas City remains 14.2 percent below its 2019 level. St. Louis Community College is down 9.5 percent, and Three Rivers College has declined by 12.3 percent. The story of adaptation is also evident in the technical sphere: State Technical College of Missouri stands out as a beacon, growing 36.0 percent since 2019, mirroring the success of its Kansas counterparts and validating the powerful demand for career and technical education.

Reckoning and Renaissance

The enrollment trends in Kansas and Missouri paint a clear picture of a higher education landscape in the midst of a profound transformation. The pandemic did not create these trends but accelerated pre-existing forces, compressing a decade of gradual change into a few tumultuous years.

The great reckoning is upon the regional public universities and smaller rural community colleges. Buffeted by demographics, competition, and a public increasingly skeptical of the return on investment of a traditional degree, they are being forced into painful but necessary “right-sizing.” The actions of the Kansas Board of Regents show that state systems are no longer willing to subsidize stagnation.

Simultaneously, a renaissance is underway at institutions that have clearly aligned their missions with economic and student demands. Large, research-oriented universities with strong brands and resources continue to draw students. Most powerfully, technical colleges are experiencing a golden age, fueled by a societal and economic rediscovery of the value of skilled trades.

The lesson for the heartland and beyond is that the era of one-size-fits-all higher education is over. The future belongs to institutions that are agile, strategic, and unafraid to demonstrate a direct, tangible pathway from the classroom to a career. In this new landscape, the divide between growing and declining institutions is not just a matter of enrollment figures; it is a measure of relevance.