A World of Worries

We at Ingram’s are occasionally criticized—unfairly, I’d argue—for being Pollyannas in the face of hard economic data and disturbing headlines. Cheerleaders for the business community, the complaints go.
Let’s dispel that. Here are some things that worry me. Should probably worry you, too.

A Boom That Echoes

Gen. Billy Mitchell has been dead for nearly a century. If you’ve heard of him at all, you know he was the father of the U.S. Air Force, having foreseen war with Japan 30 years before Pearl Harbor. He was the visionary who grasped the potential for carrier-based aviation, which eventually ended the era of the battleship.

As far as I know, he had limited connections to Missouri then. But he does today: After this month’s astonishing drone attack by which Ukraine eliminated a large piece of Russia’s strategic nuclear bombing threat, my thoughts turned to the general, to paradigm shifts in war-fighting tech, and eventually to … Sedalia.

Why? Because nearby Whiteman Air Force base is home to the nation’s fleet of 19 operating B-2 Stealth bombers. Anyone who thinks similar designs aren’t on the drawing board for that fleet is in a deeper slumber than the War Department was as night fell on Dec. 6, 1941.

Is it possible that foreign adversaries have forward-stationed weaponry with a 65305 delivery ZIP code? Trying not to be paranoid here, but China and Chinese investors own 42,600 acres of Missouri farmland, the state’s Department of Agriculture says. You do the calculus.

So, yeah, I’m worried about that. Hope the Pentagon is, too.

Dashing and Dining

The sad reality of reader-voting awards like the Best of Business Kansas City feature in this edition is that ballots will sometimes be cast before market forces take their toll on favored organizations. That came through loud and clear in this year’s voting. In the various categories of Best Pizza, Healthiest Menu and Best Barbecue, votes were tabulated for D’Bronx, Seasons 52 and Danny Edwards Boulevard Barbecue—all popular with voters over the years.

This year, votes for those companies were wasted—all three had shuttered their doors by press time. The reasons for their closures differed, but all are part of a trend that should give pause to anyone tracking employment numbers and the overall health of the hospitality sector. Something major, something truly transformative, is going on out there.

It started before the pandemic. It took off during the shutdowns. And it has accelerated since: People are voting not just with their wallets, but with their smartphone clocks. For many, getting the food in front of you—now!—has taken priority over such considerations as quality and atmosphere.

According to Department of Agriculture stats, dining at home enjoyed a 54-46 percent advantage in consumer spending at the depths of the pandemic. Since then, it’s flipped: 53-47 in favor of away-from-home dollars in 2023.

One might think that would be a good sign for restaurants. Think again. Last month, the National Restaurant Association found that 75 percent of restaurant traffic—customer/pick-up volumes, not dollars—now classifies as takeout.

Forget AI: Real jobs, right now, are being wrecked by changing consumer preferences, even if the takeout food, when it finally arrives, is nowhere near as fresh, hot or tasty as it is tableside. Think about where that’s going for 83,000 food-services/drinking sector employees (per BLS) in the Kansas City MSA. Roughly one worker in 12.

So, yeah, that worries me.

Taxes, Shmaxes

Well, Jackson County has finally knuckled under to the Missouri Tax Commission’s order to address the ridiculous assessment increases levied during annual appraisal fiascos since 2020. Some reports suggest that $245 million in excess taxes have been collected based on flawed figures.

Naturally, the county’s response for a call to issue refunds to property owners is a resounding … “Meh.” Hardly unexpected. In the 25 years since I acquired the palatial estate in Baja Brookside, the property tax bill is up nearly 200 percent—more than twice the rate of inflation in that span.

Government is government: where it goes, inefficiency, incompetence and indifference follow. I get that. But the people who brought you this mess continue to serve in office. Hell, some of them are even running for re-election on that shameful record.

This being Jackson County, they’ll probably win, too. So best be prepared for more of their brand of “public service.” And, yeah, that worries me, too.

Maybe more than the other things combined.