What compounds the planning difficulties for firms within the industry is the uncertainty as to when and how cycles will reverse themselves, or as Tom Turner of Collateral Mortgage noted, whether we are looking at "a short term lull or a long term lull." Turner added humbly but accurately, "I don't think anyone knows."

Given the uncertaintly, Garry Kemp of the Building & Trades Council noted that "the challenge for us is to think as a region and not as competing interests." Bob Arthur of Bank of America agreed, "A stronger regional focus would be key to pulling us out of this doldrums period we're in."

Jerry Riffel of Lathrop & Gage argued that the great challenge of a down cycle was "how to turn this economy into an opportunity." With so many commercial vacancies and such low rates, it would seem a propitious time to work with headquarter companies to initiate activity.

Bill Crandall of Zimmer Real Estate Services elaborated that this is a good opportunity to think "more globally" and to ask what is going to anchor new opportunities, to attract the interest of institutional money people and to gain Kansas City more national exposure. He suggested that the life sciences initiative was a useful step in that direction.

"What impresses me," said Susan McGreevy unabashedly, "is that there is such timidity out there in the development community." She cited reasons enough to make sense of the timidity, but, she added, "We need to jump start people into having a little confidence to start developing again."

Greg Carlson of The Weitz Company agreed. "Getting confidence in the economy," he believed to be the most pressing challenge today.

Grover Simpson made the connections among what might seem like disparate issues, namely the shortage of desirable opportunities, the greater competition when there are opportunities, the undercapitalized contractors, and the consequent "lack of confidence" in the development community.

Given this environment, Marty Hoffey also of The Weitz Company made the essential point that "making smart business decisions" is more critical today than ever. "Those kind of decisions," he added, "will determine whether your business will be around in a year."

Insurance Crunch

It was not just because the meeting was held at Lockton that insurance emerged as arguably the pivotal issue of the day. Rather it was, as Dan Morgan of the Builders'Association suggested first, "the recent increases in the cost of insurance, of all kinds" that prompted so much discussion. Added Morgan in a common lament, "Some insurance can't be obtained at any price." "Insurance is a big concern," agreed Pat McCown.

"The insurance side is becoming very difficult," Ernie Straub of Straub Construction noted, adding, "It has the potential of really hurting the industry." "One of the biggest focuses right now," confirmed Kris Roberts of Turner, "is the insurance and the risk."

GMAC's Tom Cohen examined the dilemma from the perspective of the mortgage banker. As he explained, he is often asked to look at new projects coming on line and to evaluate them. "What I constantly see," Cohen contended, "are rising expenses due to insurance putting the squeeze on projected NOI (Net Operating Income) and making it difficult for us on a pro forma base to provide sufficient debt to support projects."